I've been thinking about this Foreign Policy article by Phillip Longman, of which I saw surprisingly little discussion on my favorite blogs, although it was in A&L Daily. In brief, it posits that a society's long-term survival chances depend on a patriarchal family structure. Phrased so baldly, it sounds identical to what you might hear some nasty old relative of yours saying about "the [Ethnic Slurs] outbreeding us, just popping out babies faster than anybody else can keep up." What makes this article bearable is that Longman does not exhort the maidens of the fatherland to bear blond children; he merely explains the theory:
Declining birthrates also change national temperament. In the United States, for example, the percentage of women born in the late 1930s who remained childless was near 10 percent. By comparison, nearly 20 percent of women born in the late 1950s are reaching the end of their reproductive lives without having had children. The greatly expanded childless segment of contemporary society, whose members are drawn disproportionately from the feminist and countercultural movements of the 1960s and 70s, will leave no genetic legacy. Nor will their emotional or psychological influence on the next generation compare with that of their parents.
Meanwhile, single-child families are prone to extinction. A single child replaces one of his or her parents, but not both. Nor do single-child families contribute much to future population. The 17.4 percent of baby boomer women who had only one child account for a mere 7.8 percent of children born in the next generation. By contrast, nearly a quarter of the children of baby boomers descend from the mere 11 percent of baby boomer women who had four or more children. These circumstances are leading to the emergence of a new society whose members will disproportionately be descended from parents who rejected the social tendencies that once made childlessness and small families the norm. These values include an adherence to traditional, patriarchal religion, and a strong identification with one’s own folk or nation.
This dynamic helps explain, for example, the gradual drift of American culture away from secular individualism and toward religious fundamentalism. Among states that voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, fertility rates are 12 percent higher than in states that voted for Sen. John Kerry . . .
Rather than rejecting his thesis out of hand, I thought to myself: let me put aside my high enlightened dudgeon and consider whether he may be right. If so, what then? Is it worth one's liberty of thought, of behavior, to maintain a stable patriarchal society? If Longman's thesis is correct, then a society experiences a period of flowering in which mores are loosened and thought correspondingly freed. It comes at the cost of the survival of that segment of society who, in pursuing their individual destinies and giving the age its character, neglect to have enough progeny to replace themselves. If societies suffer and die, just as people do, is it worse to enjoy the period of decay rather than the sustainable period? Is it not worth it for the explosion of culture, the fireworks of human freedom, even if it must all fall to ashes and the great-great-grandchildren must take up the struggle again?
This isn't to say that I necessarily believe Longman. Even without a grounding in demographics, I find his theory problematic in the details. He says, for example:
Tomorrow’s children, therefore, unlike members of the postwar baby boom generation, will be for the most part descendants of a comparatively narrow and culturally conservative segment of society. To be sure, some members of the rising generation may reject their parents’ values, as always happens. But when they look around for fellow secularists and counterculturalists with whom to make common cause, they will find that most of their would-be fellow travelers were quite literally never born.
I don't think he has a full grasp of the single most powerful motivator in the life of a young American with two brain cells to rub together: getting yourself the hell away from anything that reminds you of your parents. A suburban red-state Church of Christ is as much a cauldron of seething resentment and rebellion as any college campus; the smart kids just have their mouths clamped shut. As soon as they have anything to say about it, they'll move to New York, become the kind of New Yorkers who read Gawker and complain about "Disneyfication" of the city, and the cycle will begin anew.